Friday, May 20, 2016

#Uganda shilling and global market report May 20, 2016
The Uganda shilling closed at 3365 on the US dollar, 4882 on the British pound, 3777 on the Euro, 49.90 on the Rupee, 33.43 on the Kenyan shilling, 2566 on the Canadian dollar, 2429 on the Australian dollar and 1.54 on the Tanzania shilling.  I am introducing the Australian dollar because we have some great friends there.
Coffee Arabica closed at $3.16 per kilo.  Call it profit taking because Arabica had risen quite a bit this week.
Coffee Robusta closed at $1.85 per kilo.  It did not fall as much as Arabica.
Those who trade coffee ship in 25,000 containers.  My advice still remains the same.  Trade both.  Arabica can make you very rich but when it drops some $0.25 a kilo, it can hurt the bottom line.  Robusta does drop too but not as aggressively.  The one thing I have learned about both types is that Arabica scores with true coffee lovers.  The rest of us drink Robusta and cannot tell the difference.  Uganda grows both types so you have no excuse not to mix your container shipments to hedge.
Gold is trading at $1,252 per ounce.  It only lost $5 per ounce today.  This means that the rest of the markets must be doing pretty good.
Oil (Brent) barely moved and it is sitting at $48.78 a barrel.  This could be a trap.  I think the shorters were smocked out when it fell last week and then had to scramble to cover their short positions.
I wrote about stock market turbulence in January this year.  You can refer to this piece and it explains about Shorting and going Long.  The former is about selling what you do no have hoping that you can buy it back at a lower cost and give it back to your broker.  The latter is about buying and holding hoping that the price will go up.  Interesting that it even goes into Margin calls, the nightmare of traders.
Shanghai gained 19 points and is basing.  This one is going to go up because all the sellers are done now.
Hong Kong gained 4 points and might stop falling.  The key word is MIGHT.  If I were to trade Asian indices, I would bet on Shanghai first.  Its chart looks better and Hong Kong looks undecided.
Tokyo gained 90 points.  This is nothing for the Nikkei.  This is an index that can cause heart attacks.  The only good news today is that it closed above its 50 day Moving Average (MA).
Frankfurt gained 120 points but still closed under its 50 day MA.
Paris gained 73 points but still closed under its 50 day MA.  It does look like next week it could climb higher.
London gained 103 points.  Nice play FTSE.  It still closed under its 50 day MA.  It closed at the same hair line as its 200 day MA and if it can break above this line, all will be dandy.  Chart of today. Look to the left and you see a long red candle (bad news) then today we see the white candle trying to engulf it.  By the way, the candles have nothing to do with race.  Some charting engines use black for negative then white for positive.  Japanese candlesticks.
North America:
Toronto gained 102 points and is closing way above its 200 day MA.  Toronto should thank Oil.
Dow Jones Industrial Average is not signalling strength.  It gained 66 points but still closing under its 50 day MA. This one is not as sensitive to Oil as Toronto but it is sensitive to Geo-Political affairs.  I would stay on the sideline.
Standard and Poor gained 12 points and in fact kissed its 50 day MA.  So perhaps North America might lead this recovery from the minor sell off we saw from the profit takers and shorters!
NASDAQ gained 57 points.  The NAS is tech heavy so thank you for buying gadgets.  It is closing under its 50 day MA and 200 MA but shaping up to fly high.  This might be a good place to go long (buy and hold) but do not use money you cannot afford to lose.
All the Great Lakes news is online and all you have to do is check out The Insider and search for each of the countries surrounding Uganda.
The World News is also covered.  Here is the link for the World News:
You might want to note that NATO is mobilising military to deal with the Russian factor.  The biggest mobilisation since the Cold War.
Venezuela is going through a big military exercise, the biggest ever in its history.
There was a shooting at the White House today.
The Israel Minister of Defence walked off his job.
WHO says that the yellow fever outbreak in Africa is serious but not to worry about it.
Then we have Egyptian Air.  May their souls rest in peace.
Martha Leah Nangalama
The writer has an IT and business background and can be found on all social media.

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