Thursday, March 26, 2015


It is only because a brother asked about this.  The closing for Oil was around $51.  Uganda projected their oil to sell at $148.  The break even poind was soome $60.  We are talking price per barrel.  I think they should fire their economists and policy advisers and hire you and I because brother, you and I can do better number crunching and forecasting than their geniuses.

In the diagram you see, you will see that Oil has been climbing.. but then falling.  It formed a tiny thing that signals a reversal.  So yes,oil will start to climb higher.  How high is the question?  Oil is one of the most sensitive things to trade.  Any Geo political thing can make it dive or run up.  The current excitement is being blamed on Saudi hitting the rebels in Yemen.  I should remind you that the rebels have taken over that country and they are apparently linked to Al Qaeda,  Hey, if there are so many #Ugandans linked to Al Qaeda, you can assume that some people in Yemen are die hards.  Well, we can only hope for the best.  No baby suicide bombers, black widows, guns gallore, UPDF having to extend too much of themselves to protect us, SFG having to work too hard, Kayihura not losing any sleep and all the Ugandans enjoying their SLEEP. Temuwakana, at least NRM brought you SLEEP.

Back to the chart though.  Two big red candles mean bad news.  The little hammer is not even a real hammer.  It is a pause in the down fall.  The trading crossed 2 moving lines.  Which means the next stop (support line is at $44 a barrel.  Yes, given the pause at $48 with the moving avergaregs caving in, this thing is gonna fall to $44 which  is the next support line (Moving Average).  Many Green candles were forming up in succession around that price so I think there is hope.  EXCEPT, Geopolitical affairs which none of us can predict.  In reality, the basing price for all transactions should be around $40 dollars a barrel.  Ooops, never shoot the messenger.  Uganda had calculated Break Even at $60.  Good luck people.

PS: I am not a broker, financial analyst or lawyer by profession.  I read charts for fun.

For God and My Country
Moncton, Canada
Born and Raised in Uganda (Bududa District)
Martha Leah Zesaguli (Nangalama)
BELIEVE! I wept because I had no shoes until I saw a man who had no feet." Ancient Persian saying  I am a Social Justice and Human Rights Activist. Find me on Face Book.  All my opinions are mine and do not reflect on any employer or organisation.
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