Tuesday, September 10, 2019

ENTERTAINMENT: Gamblers know when to fold, when to walk away


When our family was transferred back from Nairobi to Kampala, we were put up in an apartment in Nakasero.  Mzee hated having his kids in an apartment building.

We could learn things and learn bad manners and go roaming about.  Things which were forbidden in Nairobi where we lived prior.

He used to return from work earlier than we had seen in Nairobi. Explanation "you could all be up to no good. I do not trust the other kids in these apartment buildings".  By the way, these are the apartments a 5min run to State House Nakasero.

Then father would eat supper with us.  What a wonderful life.  Then after supper, he would get us all to play cards. He always won.

The Maths did not add up at all. I was learning Probability then and I said "There is no way in hell you can win every game".

He then says "Leah, please go and get me maziwa lala". He loved his sour milk a lot. This time when I brought it, I went behind him and handed it to him and took a pick at his hand.

We are then playing the cards.  He is freaking out my siblings because he keeps saying he has the Ace and the Jack. I did not fold.

He folded.  Because he now realised I had seen his cards.

UGANDA OPPOSITION must know what Military Dictator Yoweri Museveni has. Know what cards he is holding.  Take a pick into his mind, his circle, his hand, his might.  Failing that, then you are just making noise. Never under estimate Museveni.  It will be your downfall. Hire Data Scientists to do for you what Cambridge Analytica did for Uhuru, Buhari, Ramaphosa and Trump.

MARTHA LEAH NANGALAMA
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https://changeofguards.blogspot.com/2015/09/tda-collapse-saves-opposition.html

Thursday, 24 September 2015

TDA COLLAPSE SAVED THE OPPOSITION BUT DISAPPOINTED THE REGIME

The failed opposition alliance (TDA) to form a coalition by fielding a joint candidate for the 2016 general elections has both negative and positive implications. It failed to reach a consensus on either Dr. Besigye or Amama Mbabazi as a joint flag bearer. The TDA summit faulted Mbabazi's group for not having structures and his reluctance to denounce the ruling NRM. The same summit did not state where they faulted Dr. Besigye and why they did not select him as the joint flag bearer. The truth is that for some reasons, the majority in the TDA summit favoured Amama Mbabazi. However, they feared that if they selected any of the two, the other one would still go ahead and contest thus discrediting the TDA and fomenting antagonism between the two camps.  Therefore, deliberate refusal to select a joint flag bearer was the best option since it leaves the TDA doors open to further dialogue.

The Mbabazi team has structures countrywide cutting across all political parties including the ruling NRM, religious groups, civil society, the security services, etc. For fear of reprisals from the regime, Mbabazi's structures operate in secrecy. That is why the NRM party primaries are marred by widespread rigging and violence in order to neutralise suspected Mbabazi supporters.  It is for the same reasons that the TDA summit contends that  most of the opposition parties like UPC, DP, UFA, and PPP are supporting A mama Mbabazi.  As had been the case in 1985 with the Okello junta, the DP is hopping to raid on Amama Mbabazi's back to get closer to power.  DP President Mao in particular intends to kill two birds with one stone.  He decided not to contest for the presidency so that the northern region votes for NRM in return for a fat position in the next Museveni government.  On the other hand, he threatened to contest for the Presidency if Mbabazi would  not selected as the joint candidate so as to sway the northern Uganda vote from Besigye. Dr. Besigye on the other hand remains the leading opposition leader and enjoys countrywide support though some top FDC leaders will rally behind Amama Mbabazi to the detriment of Dr. Beigye.

Dr. Besigye and Amama Mbabazi differ on approach; while the former insists on 'No Electoral Reforms, No elections', the later contends that the regime has achieved a lot and there is only the need to change its top leadership. However, they both know very well that its not the electoral process that can dislodge Museveni from power but dismantling of his power base - the financial might and the personalized security aparatus. If the two (Besigye and Mbabazi) could work together behind the curtains, they can be able to dismantle Museveni's power base.  Thereafter, they can forge the way forward through alliances and coalitions. The regime knows the potential of the two politicians in shaking its hold on power. It is disappointed by the collapse of TDA's failure to come up with a joint presidential candidate. It had hopped that Dr. Besigye would either be eliminated from the ballot pepper or become the TDA flag bearer so that either way he abandons the most feared demand for electoral reforms and the eventual mass uprising. At the same time selecting Mbabazi as flag bearer would have provided the regime with an opportunity to disqualify his candidature on filmsy legal grounds at a later stage when it would be late for the opposition to front an alternative flag bearer. This would mark the end of any semblance of credible opposition.  Now the regime will have to go back to the drawing board to lay fresh schemes.

Because of Mbabazi's secret operational structures, the military regime is more worried of his candidature that it does with Dr. Besigye.While Dr. Besigye operates in the open and his next move is easy to predict and counter, Mbabazi is secretive and unpredictable.  That is why Mbabazi's candidature is set for tougher times ahead than  does Dr. Besigye.  The two need to supplement each other and if they can get closer to outside the 'overcrowded' TDA, some tangible results can be scored. The TDA was bound to fail but at least it has kept the regine guessing and eventually disappointed, it has marketed Mbabazi's candidature, but left Dr. Besigye slightly bruised.  He has unfairly been branded as being power hungry, unpatriotic and selfish. Besigye has the uphill task of rejuvenating the vigour that had been generated during the countrywide consultation tour and victory in his party primaries.  The big question is whether  the opposition will go into elections without reforms or or elections after reforms!!!

INFORMATION IS POWER.

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