Thursday, June 22, 2017

#SouthernSudan crisis - lessons for #Uganda @UN @UNMISS @KenRoth

First published by Change of Guards blog on December 30, 2013
The current security crisis in Southern Sudan is a good lesson for both Museveni and those opposed to his 27 years’ dictatorship. Of recent both Ugandan opposition and the general population have developed a consensus that it’s only use of force that can put an end to Museveni's dictatorship.  No doubt, forceful removal of Museveni implies the use of arms as is the case in Southern Sudan.
It means disabling and alienating the dictator from the armed forces. It is the role of a few elites whether civilian or military to effectively utilise the existing armed forces. In such a situation, the much acclaimed "the people" does not matter.  It is the men in uniform and their handlers who matter.
However, drawing lessons from the current Southern Sudan crisis, advocates of forceful removal of Museveni should organise a decisive plan of action that can dislodge Museveni within a period of between one hour and the next one week.  On the contrary, a poorly planned and protracted armed action will simply play into the hands of dictator Museveni thus throwing the country into carnage.
Like everyone else, Museveni is very much aware that the situation in Uganda is riper for armed confrontation than Southern Sudan.  He has stocked all sorts of military arsenal and succeeded privatising the armed forces by positioning his ethnic cohorts at the helm of strategic military positions.
Drawing from the experience of recent events in Southern Sudan, he is going to intensify intelligence surveillance on his own Military Commanders.  His Southern Sudan counterpart had similar arrangements but has only been saved by external intervention coupled by poor planning by the armed opposition.
It is this desire for a regional military alliance that explains the idea behind Museveni's desperate push for regional integration.  The current events in Southern Sudan have sent him more panicking than Silva Kiir.  His NRA units now in Southern Sudan will soon devise a means of committing a big massacre that will be blamed on the rebelling group.  This will be designed to brand the belligerents as terrorists and at worst subjected to indictment by the ICC in order to cripple their genuine fight against Silva Kiir’s dictatorship.
Above all, Museveni's military intervention in Juba is dictated by his historical urge to contain his own Northern Uganda Luo influence.  He did the same move in Kenya but of recent Raila Odinga has warned him to keep off Kenya's internal affairs.  Earlier he had wanted to keep the Southern Sudan occupied with war with Khartoum but this could not work for him.  For his designs, the current situation in Southern Sudan fits well if only it can keep the new nation unstable security wise.
Therefore, a Southern Sudan like situation is inevitable in Uganda and there are lessons to learn.

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