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Friday, May 5, 2017

VIDEO: #Uganda #OilCurse, #LandGrabbing and #KarmaInHeels - @StateHouseUg @IGPUganda @aKasingye @UPDFspokesman



"In 2006, Uganda confirmed the existence of commercially viable petroleum reserves in the Western Rift Valley around Lake Albert. In June 2006, Hardman Resources of Australia discovered oil sands at Waranga 1, Waranga 2, and Mputa. President Yoweri Museveni announced that he expected production of 6,000 bbl/d (950 m3/d) to 10,000 bbl/d (1,600 m3/d) by 2009." ... Wikipedia
Uganda's oil was not discovered by Museveni as he claims.  Many historians know this but since he calls it his oil, let us look at how the country has benefited from the oil.
Heritage Oil exited Uganda to cut its losses.
Tullow Oil took bought the assets of Heritage Oil and got nailed with Capital gains.  Hence the #OilHandShake.
You might have missed news earlier this year when Tullow agreed to also exit Uganda turning over its assets to Total.  Interestingly Tullow is increasing its investments in Turkana in Kenya with first slated oil exports starting June 2017 destined to India and China. 
The expectation of producing oil by 2009 as you can see has turned to just an expectation.  It does not hurt to dream.  At the writing of this, Uganda is expected to start producing commercially viable oil by 2020 despite the fact that there is no confirmed firm building the oil refinery in Hoima. Alas, no, there is no refinery being built since those traitors in Russia and South Korea turned us down and even China which usually should be jumping is not yet committed so I suppose we will just export more slaves to the Arabs in order to improve our Balance of Payments and hence become Middle Income Status by 2020.
Where was this story going?  Then the oil pipeline.  It is likely this one will b ready by 2020 since there is a bull dozer working on this project too and the last we heard, he had sacked 9,923 civil servants for fakery this after firing a pile of corrupt government officials and many other great things that bull dozers tend to do.  Hallelujah!
THE OIL CURSE:
The excitement around oil "discovery" lead to Uganda accumulating an exhorbitant level of debts to the point where now World Bank says we will be at 40% debt on GDP by 2020 given that we borrow so much to build infrastructure and please ignore that the roads do not last nor that you will get Hoima International Airport at the cost of $55,000 and Kabale International Airport at the cost of $82,000.  You might want to know that this money buys only one medium priced car but Uganda is getting whole airports with that amount.  Whoooo.  Their economists surely must walk on water.
The beauty of the oil curse is that the atrocities committed on the people so that a few become rich do not go unpunished.  Thousands upon thousands were evicted off their land.
Most investors who forced families off their traditional land and into dilapidated IDP camps (Internally Displaced People) are now sitting on huge loans they can't service because there is no oil to sell and the expatriates are no where to be seen in huge numbers to rent those high priced houses you all built, the hotels, fancy restaurants and to buy whatever things you have to sell.
The price of oil tanked to $45 a barrel when Uganda had previously indicated they needed $68 a barrel to break even but to balance their budget they need the price to be in the neighbourhood of $150 per barrel.  
There is no refinery still.  There is no pipeline.  What is interesting about the refinery is what I have written about in the past.  An investment of $4.7 billion is a lot of money.  Into a refinery when prices are falling and will likely continue to fall.  Not only this but the political climate is incredibly risk.  So take your money there and hope to get out with a tiny profit or do what Shell just did and take $10 Billion to Argentina for shale oil.
Meanwhile, the peasants you kicked off the land are suffering from hunger, diseases, their kids miss school for lack of school fees and you managed to shoot people dead over their land.  The security operatives even burned people's houses down, looted their domestic animals and slashed their crops sometimes when evicting them.  GOOD.  It is a good thing that UPDF also got their families evicted and UPF also had their barracks demolished.
#KarmaInHeels!
Martha Leah Nangalama

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