Wednesday, July 27, 2016


The Uganda shilling is impressing me quite a bit because I had expected it to fall given the Geo-Political issues around it and the world facing so many terrorist attacks.  It has not made any violent moves and if you even think about it, this week is month end and people have to settle their import payments and buy it and usually they will have bought the dollar last week.  Awesome job and congratulations to Uganda for not tanking the shilling although you have had many reasons to drop that shilling like a hot potato.
The Uganda shilling closed at 3372 on the US dollar, 4453 on the British pound, 3727 on the Euro, 50.28 on the Rupee, 33.27 on the Kenyan shilling, 2557 on the Canadian dollar (I am hurting), 2525 on the Australian dollar and 1.54 on the Tanzania shilling.  The key levels for the Uganda shilling are 3350 and once we break through it, we will gain momentum.  We nearly did it last week but then fell back.  So on the downside, the key level is 3400.  I have been saying that we had support at 3375 but lately we keep teasing this level and now our support is really sitting at 3400.  God forbid that we crash through this key number because we will be faced with panic. 
My advice to importers is to lock in rates at this rate so that you do not get hit with the Christmas rush which may seem far away but locking in rates has advantages.  A year ago, the shilling was trading around 2500 on the US dollar but now imagine that 3350 looks attractive.  Everything is relative.
Coffee Arabica closed at $3.68 per kilo.
Coffee Robusta closed at $2.20 per kilo. Nice play.
All coffee traders need to keep in mind that it is always better to mix your shipments.  Arabica and Robusta can go separate ways and have divergent falling or rising prices but they tend to cushion each other.  Mix, mix and mix some more.  Ugandans do not even blend coffee so just mix the shipments and the buyers will blend on their end.
One of my relatives, an older brother of mine works with FAIR TRADE for coffee.  Our family is from the Mt. Elgon area and we only grow Arabica.  But in the fair trade he has gotten people from his group to mix shipments as a cushion and I think it is working out.  The most expensive coffee one can drink in a regular shop is from Starbucks.  Starbucks has signed some nice contracts with coffee suppliers from Uganda but they do not want only one type so traders must learn to mix shipments according to their buyers' needs.  Coming from Mt. Elgon which only grows Arabica and working with people from Central or West Uganda that tend to grow Robusta does not mean that one is not supporting the coffee grown in one's community.  It is a balancing act to ensure that the buyers remain in business profitably.
Gold is trading at $1339 per ounce and gained $19 per ounce.  Before even looking at the markets, we know that the markets must have had a tiny bit of a bad day and investors ran into safety.  Precious metals and gold.  Keep an eye on commodities and even more at this website
Oil (Brent Crude) closed at - go darn it!  It lost $0.71 per barrel finishing at $43.87 per barrel. The fall is minuscule but the chart is ugliness.  Oil is so going to fall like you have no idea.  This is the chart for today.  It has support in the $42 neighbourhood and should it crash under that level then I guess there will be more demonstrations in Venezuela. Shaaa!
Shanghai is looking very bad.  It had given us hope but welcome to trading indexed funds.  The $SSEC lost 58 points.  At first this one might not look like it is worth our attention but it dropped like with a fury.  Finally, it touched its 50 day moving average (MA) and then pulled back but it formed a bearish pattern big time.  You can check for yourself.  Use the resources at the end.
Hong Kong moved a bit but ended up at the same level as yesterday so perhaps there was a bit too much profit taking on Mainland China (Shanghai).
Tokyo is all over the place. The Nikkei gained 282 points but the chart is all over the place.  it seems to say that it will go up but does these little gaps down and gaps up and then pulls back and the real concern is still that whopping 1300+ it sheded for #Brexit.  It has climbed well above that but a loss in one day of that magnitude kinda kills momentum and might be the reason why it is making small moves.  Hey, you might want to know that the Yen has been doing really well so luck are those who bought it and held.  SAD news for importers as they now have to pay more money for what they import.  Oh yes, even Japan imports in case you did not know.
Frankfurt gapped up and did not look back.  The $DAX gained 72 points.  Hallelujah. I love the Germans.  Terrorism will never win against Germans because they are very focused and centered.  Thank you Bavarians and all the rest of you.  You are sending out a very clear and loud message to all the haters of compassion and all those people who thought that the Germans made a big mistake to welcome in a million Syrian refugees.  You will go down in history.
Paris - Sacre diable!  The #CAC also gapped up and gained 52 points.  In the night when I was writing about the terrorist attack at the church in Rouen, I was hoping against hope that the French would not panic and tank the $CAC.  Humanity prevailed.  Imagine Rouen is a very peaceful place and the attack.  Well, losers thought that they can destroy the spirit.  Never. Never give in to the terror because it then means they win.  May God grant all the innocents who are being killed eternal peace.
London gained 26 points.  All conditions considered, the $FTSE has been basing to go down a little bit.  It is interesting that the terrorist attacks have awoken nationality and resilience that even now London which should have seen some selling is moving in solidarity with its neighbours.  Haters will always lose because we shall love them.
North America:
Toronto lost a miserly 3 points.  Nothing to write home about and it seems to be weathering well with the fluctuations in oil.
Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2 points and it is still acting like it will fall from the current level but do not forget that rising tides lift up all the boats.  For as long as Europe keeps getting attacked, the markets will keep rising in defiance and solidarity.  But oh my, the Dow looks so damn attractive as a short at this level.  Do not do it.
Standard and Poor formed the exact pattern as the Dow ($INDU) and lost 3 points.  Heck! Maybe for North America we should only look at the $SPX after all it controls everything!
Nasdaq gained 30 points.  Writer throws arms in the air and says "It is a bull market people so do not short anything unless you can spend every minute of your life watching the ticker for 1-5 minute tick prints".
The markets are bullish.  Where did all the sellers go?  Chicken!
GLOBAL NEWS - always check the World News tab but keep in mind that we also cover the Great Lakes and we report news 24 by 7.
Martha Leah Nangalama
Moncton, Canada
Whatsapp +15068716371 in case of any questions.
The writer has an IT and Business background. 

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