Saturday, April 30, 2016

POSSIBLE FALL OUT OF BILATERAL RELATIONS BETWEEN KENYA & #UGANDA


Kenya does not seem to be happy about Uganda conspiring with Tanzania to build the Oil pipeline to the port of Tanga in Tanzania.
We can all talk about the issue till the cows come home but in reality, the Northern route via Kenya had 2 big problems that many did not think about.
1) Security.  We have Al Shabaab attacking Kenya via that route.  An oil pipeline is not a pipe of water.  One can easily set it up on fire and it blows through the entire pipe.
2) Uganda was to pay $17 for transportation via the Kenyan route and Kenya was only gonna pay $7 for transportation.  Numbers do not lie people.  On this one, I have to say that Jarukanga may have been thinking rather well.  Uganda is going to be paying $12 via the Tanzania route (I round off numbers).
Then from the article in The Monitor, Tanga port offers other possibilities for Uganda to diversify its imports and exports.  We will have the Railway refurbished and the ferries to fetch containers from the port of Mwanza into Jinja and Port Bell.  I just love the numbers and this infrastructure planning.
NOW back to Kenya saying they will retaliate.  Risk Analysis and Risk Mitigation is crucial in any project.
The Railway as some of us grew to know it has been dead.  So to move merchandise from Tanga to Mwanza and load onto ships to move to Uganda is going to take time.  Think about the fact that both countries say the Oil Pipeline will not be ready until 2020 at best.  No one is talking about when the Railway will be ready.  Mind you, Mwanza, Port Bell and Jinja ports have to be drenched to allow big ships to dock.  And no one is talking about when we shall have the big ferries ready to work, the ones which can move huge amounts of container shipments.
Where Kenya has an advantage and they could use this against us is because Uganda gets most Ocean Freight via the port of Mombasa.  To the tune of 95%.  Remember that Kenya now generates its own electricity.  Uganda is land locked.
Someone should have done risk analysis.  Kenya can hurt Uganda any time they want.  We are a land locked country.  Besides the glorized bilateral trade, Kenya can now sell to the other EAC countries and actually has a huge market in China and India.
Information you might not like but could use.
Martha Leah Nangalama
Moncton, Canada
mlnangalama@gmail.com
Whatsapp +15068716371
I have an IT and business background.  Do not get malaria when you go to Uganda.
You might end up in Kenya or India. Our hospitals are Death Traps!

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