Monday, February 22, 2016


Sent by Sam Baagala. Original Author's name with held for security reasons.
The Mathematics doesn't add up. Here is why the presidential announcement should be recalled and a re-run or recount ordered.
First I need to state that I love numbers as a former Auditor of Ernst and Young and an international Banker with a global bank but also a certified fraud examiner and financial crime certified. 
I spent time looking at the numbers released by EC and unlike previous posts and all the hate posts, I have assumed that there was no cheating and that electoral commission was independent and results were accurate and just concentrated on the numbers so my readers can read without bias.
I came to the conclusion that EC errorred not only in the percentages quoted but also in announcing M7 as the winner of the elections and why a recount or Re-run is needed.
First the law requires that a candidate should get 50% and above of the votes to be declared a winner or else there will be a re-run. Now on the numbers declared by EC.
Bw- 86,075- 0.93%
JPAM- 132,574-1.43%
Barya - 51,086- 0.55%
Biraro - 24675 -0.26%
KB. - 3,270,290-35.37%
Mabirizi- 23,762. -0.26%
Kyalya - 40,598. -0.44%
YKM - 5,617,503- 60.75%
Total of valid votes - 9,246,563
invalid votes- 455,175- 4.69%
Spoilt votes - 25,538
Total votes - 9,727,276
When you add up the %ages quoted above including invalid votes, the total is 104.69% instead of 100% as expected because when determining percentages for candidates, EC didn't include invalid votes and spoilt votes which it should as per the law since they form part of the votes cast. ( Lawyers can confirm).
If invalid votes are added when determine percentages of candidates as per released results, president M7 would have scored 57.75% which still is ok for him to be declared president but then don't forget that Electoral commission announced M7 pre-maturely by including only 93.62% of the polling stations. Leaving 6.62% of the polling stations unaccounted for or not included.
After analyzing the EC released results you will notice that the polling stations not included came from JInja, Kampala, Wakiso etc. now it's not a coincidence that those are some of the most populated voting areas and I won't assume they are for FDC or NRM. 
The 6.62% of non included polling stations actually account for over 12% of the registered voters and therefore by not including them in the counting EC knowingly or unknowingly might have prematurely announced M7 winner bse there remained a possibility of M7 getting less than 40% of the votes not counted in which case opposition would get the remaining 60% as it happened in Kampala in which case M7 would fail to get 50%. It's therefore possible that a re-run would occur. 
Please not all those figures were based on actuals released by electoral commission but it would be real worse if rigging is factored like some areas where M7 got more votes than actual polling station numbers or where pre-ticket ballots were discovered.
I would therefore request journalists and those concerned to look through the numbers first before we even factor in rigging which was obvious.
I hope somebody interested in facts analyses the numbers and I hope the opposition challenges the election based on facts so that the element of substance and substantial is established to give us ground for a repeat of the election. I would also welcome any criticism on the law.
EC needs to explain.

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