End of year financial analysis for #Uganda.
On December 31, 2014, the Uganda shilling closed at 2771 on the US dollar. On December 31, 2015, it closed at 3372 on the US dollar.
Coffee Arabica closed at $4.34 per kilo on Dec 31, 2014. On Dec 31, 2015 Arabica closed at $3.26 a kilo.
Coffee Robusta closed at $2.20 per kilo on Dec 31, 2014. Robusta closed at $1.8 per kilo on Dec 31, 2015.
I am skipping gold for this analysis. Uganda has no impact on the gold market. Well, if you sell things illicitly you cannot expect the major markets to monitor your volume and prices.
The big one is Oil. Since it is #Museveni's oil.
On Dec 31, 2014, Brent crude oil closed at $62.16 a barrel. On Dec 31, 2015, it closed at $37.28 a barrel.
On Dec 31, 2014, Uganda's inflation was 12%. It is now 9.3%. But since we did not have much use of Social Media in the past elections, ensure you are not drinking anything. In 2011, the inflation was 30.48%.
The World Bank and IMF have reduced Uganda's GDP from 5.8% to 5%.
Moody's has down graded Uganda from stable to negative. This means it is riskier to lend money to Uganda oh heck, we always have China.
Uganda's GDP per capita was $422 in the year 2014. It is now in the neighbourhood of $725. GDP per capita is truly "number fudging". This number is what many economists play with to influence loans and funders. A country like Uganda where there is no transparency in accounting is a toss. Means give your money at your own risk. At regime change over, you could lose it all.
You will remember that the World Bank (WB) recently cancelled $265 million for a road project in Uganda due to lack of accountability. And they will be reviewing all projects.
Some people were surprised that Total is taking Uganda to a tribunal in USA for arbitration. Again, transparency and accountability. Tullow Oil has not even settled the court order to pay Uganda. Hey, if you want to hide things, The Devil Wears Prada.
Martha Leah Nangalama
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